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Are Your Clients Making Diverse, Long-Term Investments?

Most people believe the U.S. economy is struggling. That doesn’t have to be the case for your clients.
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Now that we’ve passed the mid-year point of 2016, now is a good time to take note of the first six months’ financial performance.

If you polled a significant number of people on how the stock market is doing in general, most would probably say, “Not well.” This perception perhaps comes from all the noise about Brexit, or the dismal May jobs report, or the overall malaise of the economy, which has most Americans feeling uncertain about economic conditions.

However, someone who invested their 401(k) plan in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Dec. 31, 2015 would see a total gain of 5.20%—including reinvested dividends—through the end of June.

“Behavioral finance” is the tendency of investors to bring biases to the table that can lead to short-term solutions, rather than adhering to a long-term strategy based on risk tolerance, savings objectives and diversification. For example, the U.K.’s exit from the EU—widely known as “Brexit”—initially spooked the markets when the vote was announced on a Thursday evening and global markets took big hits on Friday and Monday.

But for the entire week, the Dow gained 3.15%. For those employees who went into their 401(k) plan over that weekend and allocated some or all of their balance out of stocks, they missed the bounce-back. This example points out why a long-term outlook is critical in accomplishing long-term savings goals.

Investment advisers demonstrate their value when they spend time with their clients, helping them develop their investment plans and reminding them ups and downs will occur, but they must tune out noise from the media, their friends and their colleagues.

Take this example: If Rip Van Winkle had put his 401(k) plan in a target-date fund  prior to having grog with Henry Hudson’s crew and woke up 20 years later, the fund would rebalance among stocks and bonds, at least annually, and he would be in great financial shape. Ironically, Washington Irving authored “Rip Van Winkle” to relieve himself of bankruptcy while living abroad in England with this brother.

Retirement administrator Aon Hewitt shared an interesting data point regarding its 401(k) plans, which offer a “self-directed’ brokerage option allowing participants to invest directly in stocks and bonds, versus investing among the 401(k) plan’s menu options. The average return for the brokerage option was -5.3% versus -1.9%, meaning self-directed investors fare worse than employees who invest with the plan’s investment lineup. And typically, the self-directed investors consider themselves more investment savvy. Perhaps the lesson is that diversification among investment managers and index funds beats keeping all your eggs in one basket.

One consequence of Brexit is that the flight to safety has resulted in lower interest rates in the U.S.: The Ten-Year Treasury has hit historical lows of 1.4%, and the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage is back down to 3.5%, which might serve as a catalyst for slow housing sales country.

Overall, economic conditions are not the best they have been, nor are they the worst. The fall election season will renew focus on the state of the country and contrasting outlooks for the long-term prosperity of the U.S. It will serve investors well to remember they need to focus on their specific goals and invest accordingly. Independent agents also need to keep their attention on the aspects of their agency operations that will benefit from investments in technology, employees and marketing so that their agency will continue to flourish, despite the twists and turns of the economy.

Dave Evans is a certified financial planner and an IA contributor.