Agent/broker profitability reached 21% for 2014—a new record and a significant increase from 19.3% in 2013 and 18.4% in 2012, according to the Reagan Consulting Organic Growth and Profitability (OGP) survey.

Meanwhile, median organic growth reached 6.2% in 2014, matching both preceding years, and median Rule of 20 score—the sum of an agency’s organic growth rate and half its EBITDA margin—increased to 16.9 from 16.5 in 2013.

The numbers are strong—and a bit of a surprise, says Kevin Stipe, president of Reagan Consulting. “They were well above what agents had projected,” he says. “One factor is firms are paying attention to organic growth today than ever before. Everywhere I go people are talking sales culture, they’re talking new business. That’s key.”

But amid whispers that a soft market might be waiting just around the corner, can the success repeat itself in 2015? “You have to be a little anxious about what’s going on with commercial p-c pricing, which looks like it’s dipping into slightly negative territory now,” Stipe says, noting that three fundamentals drive organic growth for an independent agency: the agency’s new business and retention—“the controllable factors,” he says—the economy and pricing trends.

“The economy seems to be strong and p-c pricing is kind of neutral,” Stipe explains. “Unless we see a major change in p-c pricing or the economy in the coming year, I think we can reasonably expect that another 6% growth year is likely.”

It just might take a different form. The fastest-growing segment of business in 2014 was commercial lines, achieving an organic growth rate of 7%, with group benefits coming in second at 5.7%. But don’t be surprised if the situation flips in 2015. Compared to the prior two years, “commercial’s down and benefits is up a little bit,” Stipe notes. “If I had to guess I’d say commercial may soften a little bit further and benefits may pick up a little bit more.”

The survey did not uncover significant differences based on an agency’s size or location.

Despite last year’s positive results, agents and brokers forecast a pullback for 2015, from 21% to 20% for profitability and from 6.2% to 6% for organic growth. But according to Stipe, that’s not necessarily rooted in a pessimistic outlook.

For both privately and publicly held agencies, “there is a demographic fear across the industry today where agents and brokers are waking up to the fact that the age thing has gotten away from them a little,” Stipe says. “They’re realizing they’ve got to get younger and they’re realizing they need to hire more producers than perhaps they thought.”

So if firms are projecting margins will decline slightly this year, it could be because “they’re expecting to reinvest more in future growth than perhaps they have in the past,” Stipe says. “It’s a very healthy thing.”

Jacquelyn Connelly is IA senior editor.