‘It Only Takes One,’ Warns NOAA Ahead of ‘Below-Average’ Hurricane Season
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. Recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its outlook for the months ahead and predicts a below-average season this year with eight to 14 named storms. Of them, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
NOAA estimates there’s a 55% chance that activity during hurricane season will be below normal, a 35% chance it will be near normal, and a 10% chance it will be above normal. On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three reach major hurricane strength.
NOAA’s outlook will be updated several times throughout the summer to reflect changes in the forecast. Meanwhile, Colorado State University is predicting the lowest overall activity since 2015, when the strongest El Niño in the last 75 years occurred.
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Even so, experts stress that a quieter forecast does not mean a risk-free season.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs. “We have had Category 5 storms make landfall in the past during below-average seasons.”
In April, AccuWeather predicted between 11 and 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher, during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters expect three to five storms to directly impact the U.S. during the season.
A developing El Niño will be one of the biggest forces shaping the hurricane season and is one reason storm activity could be near or slightly below historical averages. Still, hurricane preparedness is critical, as multiple storms could make landfall in the U.S. this season.
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal, altering global wind patterns, according to NOAA.
During El Niño years, stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic typically suppress hurricane formation, often resulting in fewer Atlantic hurricanes but sometimes resulting in more activity in the eastern Pacific.
NOAA’s 2025 outlook originally predicted last year’s hurricane season would include 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The forecast was adjusted slightly downward in August to predict 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.
In the end, there were 13 named storms overall in 2025, including five hurricanes, four of which were major.
The only U.S. landfall came from Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit South Carolina in early July and caused rain and flooding. Hurricane Erin was the first Category 5 storm of the season and brought storm surge, tropical storm conditions to the North Carolina Outer Banks and rip currents along the East Coast.
In a growing trend, Erin underwent rapid intensification and is tied for the fifth-fastest 24-hour increase in maximum sustained winds on record, from 75 mph to 160 mph, according to NOAA.
Will Jones is IA editor-in-chief.
