Are Quieter Hurricane Seasons an Anomaly or a Trend? 

• By: Will Jones
• August 26, 2026

For the first time in a decade, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ended without a single hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. Yet, the same season produced three Category 5 hurricanes, which was tied for the second-most ever recorded, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). None of those hurricanes made landfall. 

To date, no major hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Does a quiet year signal that hurricane risk is easing? The evidence suggests no. 

The threat that defines hurricane season for the U.S. is not the count of storms a forecaster predicts, but whether one of those storms strikes a populated area, according to “A Decade of Storms: Why 2025’s Calm Season Isn’t a Trend” by Neptune Flood, which explains what hurricane season is, what the past decade has actually cost, and why one quiet year should not be mistaken for a change in direction. 

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 each year—and every year, a handful of research organizations publish a prediction for how many named storms, winds of 39 mph or greater; hurricanes, 74 mph or greater; and major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger, 111 mph or greater, are likely to form in the Atlantic basin. 

However, as Neptune’s report points out, a pre-season forecast says nothing about where storms will go, how strong they will become at landfall, or what they will hit.  

“Those factors are determined by atmospheric steering currents, wind patterns far above the ocean surface that push storms east, west, north, or south as they travel,” the report said. “In 2025, those steering currents pushed every Atlantic hurricane away from the U.S. coastline. In 2024, they pushed five hurricanes into the U.S.” 

One season without a U.S. landfall does not mean the risk has receded; the underlying exposure remains unchanged. The same conditions that caused significant damage over the past decade remain in place and, in fact, are intensifying.  

Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain at or near record levels. Warmer air holds more moisture—roughly 7% more for every 1°C of warming—which translates directly into heavier rainfall during storm events. 

In July, global sea temperatures reached a record high, fueled by developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific, according to the EU’s climate monitoring service. As a result, NOAA’s 2026 outlook calls for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, citing the expected development of a strong El Niño pattern that historically suppresses Atlantic tropical activity. 

Yet, these outlooks describe where storms might form, not where they will go. Hurricane Sandy made landfall in 2012 as a Category 1 hurricane—the weakest classification—but because it struck one of the most densely populated regions of the country, it affected 24 states and caused roughly $70 billion in damage.  

Further, population density has only increased since 2012, particularly on the coast. A recent University of Alabama study estimated that 17.5 million people along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts face a “very high” risk of coastal flooding, with an additional 17 million at “high” risk. 

“Once a storm reaches a populated coastline, the question becomes whether the people in its path are prepared for what’s about to hit them,” the Neptune report said. 

The nine years leading up to 2025 produced some of the most consequential losses in U.S. history. Between 2016 and 2024, 25 hurricanes made U.S. landfall, at an average of nearly three per year. Five consecutive years—2020 through 2024—brought at least one major hurricane to U.S. shores. Six of the 10 costliest U.S. hurricanes on record occurred during this window. 

After a decade marked by frequent landfalls, costly losses and growing coastal development, one calm year looks far more like a statistical outlier than a lasting trend. The storms are still forming, the exposure is still growing, and a single storm can define an entire season. 

William Jones is IA editor-in-chief.