Commercial Property Rates Fall But Casualty Remains Under Pressure

• By: Will Jones
• October 15, 2026

Earlier this month, WTW released the fall 2026 edition of its “Insurance Marketplace Realities” report, examining rate predictions and market conditions across more than 30 lines of commercial insurance.

As competition among insurers intensified, large and complex property rates fell an average of 14.5% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 8.4% a year earlier. Shared and layered programs, placements with five or more carriers, saw average declines of 23.4%, up from 14.6% in the second quarter of 2025. The market has now moved from the depths of the hard market toward pricing last seen in 2019.

The report, “The Specialist View: Navigating Tomorrow’s Risk Landscape for 2027,” reflects on how specialization across lines is helping clients navigate accelerating technology risk, including new exposures tied to artificial intelligence (AI) and data infrastructure investment.

“Clients are navigating a market being reshaped by specialization and technology at the same time,” said Jackie Bolig, head of placement and broking solutions for North America at WTW. “The pace of change, particularly around AI and data infrastructure, means brokers can’t operate in silos. Our clients need advisors who connect the dots across their full risk profile.”

Additionally, global insured catastrophe losses reached $107 billion in 2025, which was the sixth consecutive year above $100 billion, even though the first half of 2026 produced the lowest total since 2020.

Meanwhile, casualty tells a different story than property. Auto liability and general and excess liability lines, including lead umbrella, for high hazard risks remain under pressure from nuclear verdicts and social inflation.

However, cyber rates are remaining flat—between a 5% decrease and a 5% increase—and the report urges buyers to reinvest any savings into higher limits given the continued rise of AI-enabled ransomware and data exfiltration threats.

The report also highlights early indications that rate increases in the excess casualty market may be nearing their peak, driven in part by new capacity entering the market.

“Rates and risk are no longer moving in the same direction across every line, and that gap is where our clients need the most guidance,” Bolig said. “Property buyers have room to negotiate this cycle. Casualty and specialty buyers need to plan for a market that is still correcting for verdict severity and emerging technology risk.”

Will Jones is IA editor-in-chief.