National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters are predicting 21 named storms, of which up to 11 could become hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revised its prediction for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
So far, the 2023 season has seen five storms, four named and one unnamed. But the climatological peak of hurricane season has not yet begun.
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic are likely to offset the usually limiting atmospheric conditions caused by an El Niño, NOAA said.
NOAA forecasters are predicting 21 named storms, of which up to 11 could become hurricanes, compared to a typical yearly average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, meteorologists announced during an updated hurricane outlook call last week, noting that they are 70% sure that this will occur.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures," said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season."
Image credit: NOAA
More than 32 million single-family residences (SFRs) and 1 million multi-family residences (MFRs) are at moderate or more significant risk of sustaining damage from hurricane-force winds, according to CoreLogic's "2023 Hurricane Risk Report." This damage is projected to have a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $11.6 trillion. A total of 6.4 million homes are at an extreme risk level for hurricane-force wind damage at a cost of $1.8 trillion.
Additionally, approximately 7.8 million homes, with a combined RCV of $2.6 trillion, are susceptible to storm surge flooding due to their direct or indirect coastal exposure.
The Atlantic hurricane season historically peaks between August and October, when about 90% of tropical storms tend to occur. NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.
Will Jones is IA editor-in-chief.