P&C Insurance Market Reports Best Underwriting Results Since 2013
The U.S. property & casualty insurance industry reported a net combined ratio of 96.6 in 2024, according to a report from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman, which is a 5.1-point improvement from 2023 and the best results the industry has seen since 2013.
Both personal and commercial lines reported net combined ratios under 100 in 2024. However, progress could be undone by the California wildfires in January and the impact of tariffs, the report warned.
“While P/C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy … we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs.” —Michael Léonard, chief economist and data scientist, Triple-I.
Personal auto recorded a net combined ratio of 95.3, a 9.6-point year-over-year improvement. Personal auto written premiums grew 12.8% in 2024, building on 2023’s growth of 14.4%.
While homeowners saw a net combined ratio of 99.7, it was an improvement of 11.2 points over 2023 and the first time since 2019 the market saw results below 100. Homeowners premiums grew 13.6% year over year, the highest growth in 15 years.
U.S. p&c insurers recorded an underwriting gain of $24.8 billion in 2024, showing significant improvement compared to the underwriting loss of $21.8 billion recorded in 2023, according to a report from Verisk and the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA). The report attributed the gain to premiums catching up to risks.
Further, p&c underlying economic growth in 2025 so far has been 5% year over year, double the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.5%, according to Triple-I and Milliman.
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But while personal and commercial rates continued to rise in the first quarter of 2025, according to MarketScout, Triple-I and Milliman predict the California wildfires in January could result in the worst first-quarter performance for the p&c industry in over 15 years. The industry’s momentum could be further stalled by the unfolding impact of tariffs.
“While P/C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy—with stronger growth and lower replacement cost inflation—we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs,” said Michael Léonard, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I. “These headwinds are expected to slow the sector’s momentum, potentially leading to a contraction later in the year that could exceed the overall GDP slowdown.”
“Additionally, replacement costs, initially projected to rise more slowly than [the consumer price index], may accelerate and begin to outpace it, adding further pressure,” Léonard added. “Even though rising costs may lead to additional premium increases, these will likely be insufficient to offset slowing consumer spending and corporate investment.”
Although the p&c industry overall posted positive results, general liability is a trouble spot, posting a net combined ratio of 110—its worst since 2016.
“The 2024 net combined ratio of 110 included a staggering nine points of adverse prior year development, amounting to more than $9 billion of reserve strengthening, the highest seen in at least 15 years,” said Jason B. Kurtz, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman. “It is also concerning that the hard market years 2020-2023, which saw significant rate increases, are also seeing reserve increases.”
Workers compensation remains the golden child of commercial lines, continuing “an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line,” said Donna Glenn, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI). “And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges.”
AnneMarie McPherson Spears is IA news editor.
