El Niño to Shape 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

• By: Will Jones
• April 1, 2026

AccuWeather is predicting between 11 to 16 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher, during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters also expect three to five storms to directly impact the U.S. during the season.

The historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

A developing El Niño will be one of the biggest forces shaping the hurricane season and is one reason storm activity could be near or slightly below historical averages. Still, hurricane preparedness is critical, as multiple storms could make landfall in the U.S. this season.

El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal, altering global wind patterns, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

During El Niño years, stronger upper-level winds over the Atlantic typically suppress hurricane formation, often resulting in fewer Atlantic hurricanes but sometimes result in more activity in the eastern Pacific.

The 2025 hurricane season came close to the historical average for the number of storms, but it featured three Category 5 hurricanes—just one shy of the all-time record of four, according to AccuWeather. Additionally, most tropical activity occurred after Sept. 10, the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

However, the last season with an El Niño was 2023, when 20 named storms formed—one of the most active seasons on record.

As a result, “it’s very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “Even if it’s expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”

Last year, the only U.S. landfall came from Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit South Carolina in early July and caused rain and flooding. Hurricane Erin was the first Category 5 storm of the season and brought storm surge, tropical storm conditions to the North Carolina Outer Banks and rip currents along the East Coast.

In a growing trend, Erin underwent rapid intensification and is tied for the fifth-fastest 24-hour increase in maximum sustained winds on record, from 75 mph to 160 mph, according to NOAA.

“This year we are very concerned about rapid intensification, very similar to the last couple of years,” DaSilva added.

Will Jones is IA editor-in-chief.