With just days to go until the election on Nov. 5, all eyes are on the U.S. presidential race. However, much more is at stake than the White House, with U.S. Senate Democrats defending a fragile majority and Republicans playing defense in the U.S. House of Representatives.

In a recent video, Nathan Riedel, Big “I" senior vice president of federal government affairs, and Molly Abboud, Big “I" director of political affairs, unpacked potential outcomes for the election next week.

Here are four things the two Big “I" experts highlighted for independent agents and brokers to watch on election night:

1) Final get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is tight, with both polling above 47%. Harris holds a slight edge in most polls, though each candidate faces a net negative favorability rating—Harris at -6 and Trump at -8. With only 5%-6% of voters still undecided, efforts in the final stretch of this election are focused on voter turnout and appealing to these swing voters.

A few key issues are shaping voter decisions. Trump maintains an edge on immigration and inflation, while Harris leads by over five points on “representing change." Interestingly, Republicans are closing the gap in early voting turnout, a space traditionally dominated by Democrats.

In the presidential election, demographics are playing a crucial role. Harris enjoys a significant 18-point lead among female voters, an improvement over President Joe Biden's 12-point margin in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump is gaining ground with Hispanic and Black voters, along with younger men, which is a demographic Republicans have struggled to attract since the Reagan era.

2) The electoral college and pivot counties. The race to 270 electoral votes will be determined by key battleground states, Abboud and Riedel explained, highlighting seven to watch: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, for instance, Harris's current lead of just 0.3% highlights how close the race is compared to Biden's 6.3% advantage at the same point in 2020—underscoring the unpredictable nature of this year's contest.

Harris's clearest route runs through the Rust Belt. If she secures Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, she's likely to win. However, if Pennsylvania slips away, she will need victories in Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and either Georgia or North Carolina to reach 273 electoral votes.

Trump, on the other hand, is focused on Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania to reach the required 270 votes. If he falters in either Georgia or North Carolina, his fallback plan relies on flipping Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Fortunately, results from Georgia and North Carolina are expected early, and will provide early hints about how the night may unfold.

A key indicator for both campaigns will be the so-called "boomerang" or “pivot counties," which are areas that voted for Obama twice, swung to Trump in 2016, and then flipped back to Biden in 2020. Three such counties to watch closely are Erie and Northampton in Pennsylvania, and Saginaw in Michigan. Early performance in these counties could signal the overall direction of the race, making them critical indicators to watch as results roll in.

3) The Senate. The current Senate composition stands at 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. However, the GOP holds a key advantage in this cycle. They are defending only 11 seats, while Democrats must protect 23, making the path to maintaining control challenging for Democrats. Further, with Sen. Joe Manchin (I-West Viginia) retiring, Republicans are likely to secure that seat, bringing them to 50 Senate seats.

One critical race is in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) faces a tough reelection in a heavily Republican state. Another race to watch is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is running in a state where Trump leads by around 10 points. Early results from Ohio could provide insights into the viability of split-ticket voting—a trend that has significantly diminished in recent years, dropping from 4.9% of voters splitting their tickets in 2008 to just 1.6% in 2020.

Battleground Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will also be influenced by the performance of the presidential candidates at the top of the ticket. If Republicans perform well, they could win a Senate majority by as many as 10 seats.

4) The House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold a slim House majority with 220 seats, and control of the next chamber will hinge on a handful of competitive races. Out of the 435 total seats, political analysts predict that fewer than 40 will ultimately decide which party holds the majority. Notably, Republicans are defending 17 districts that Biden won in 2020, while Democrats are defending five districts that Trump carried, making these races critical battlegrounds.

Polling suggests Democrats have a slight 1% edge heading into the election, but no major wave is expected on either side. Following redistricting, Republicans have gained three seats, meaning they only need to retain all their current districts and pick up one more to secure their majority.

Key congressional district races to watch early on election night include:

• Virginia's 2nd District: A swing district known for flipping between parties in recent years.
• Virginia's 7th district: An open seat that Democrats flipped in 2018 but remains highly competitive.
• North Carolina's 3rd District: A redistricting shift has made this former Democratic seat a toss-up.
• Ohio's 13th District: Long held by Democrats but now increasingly competitive.
• New Jersey's 7th District: A Republican seat in a district Biden won by four points in 2020.

With such tight margins, the House majority may remain undecided for weeks. Early results from these key districts will offer clues about which party will have the upper hand in the next Congress.

Experts from the Big “I" will be back after the election unfolds to provide members with detailed analysis and insights. As control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives hangs in the balance, stay tuned to the weekly News & Views e-newsletter for more updates and post-election coverage.

Teddie Norton Reilly is Big “I" chief of staff.