Election Preview: Winds of Political Change?

A With one month left until the midterm elections, it appears that the winds of change are blowing. The only question is whether the shifting current will produce a cool autumn breeze, a windstorm—or a tornado. Everyone on Capitol Hill wants to know if the Republicans will be able to hang onto their majorities in either chamber come November.

As is often the case in Washington, D.C., where one stands on this question largely depends on where he or she sits. Democrats predictably foresee big victories and a takeover in at least one house of Congress; Republicans concede losses are possible, even likely, but expect to hold both chambers by narrow margins. The House, among the chattering classes, is considered more likely to flip than the Senate.

Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee and a former Big “I” member, says local issues will determine most House races, and that this works to the advantage of Republicans, despite the wind in their faces this fall. Reynolds noted that despite public polling showing general congressional approval ratings hovering around 30%, polls also show that voters support their own members of Congress at levels of more than 60%.

“All politics is local,” Reynolds said in a briefing for Hill press about the upcoming election. “I expect our majority to hold. Will it be pretty? No.” Not surprisingly, Reynolds’ counterpart, Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) has a different view. The chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been quoted as expecting that voters will take a more national view and put his party in charge of the House for the first time in 12 years. Emanuel could not be reached for comment.

Regardless of how hard the political wind blows this November, the Big “I” is well positioned. As always, the Big “I” and its political arm, InsurPac, is supporting elected officials and candidates on both sides of the aisle who support independent insurance agents and brokers (see sidebar).

No matter which party runs Congress in 2007, the Big “I” has a long tradition of working in a bipartisan manner with friends and allies from both parties. In addition to InsurPac’s support of candidates from both sides, our newly expanded lobbying staff now has two Republicans and two Democrats. With this balance we are positioned to represent you no matter what the winds of change may bring.

Cliston Brown (cliston.brown@iiaba.net) is Big “I” director of public affairs/media relations.

InsurPac’s Hot Races

Washington Senate: Republican Mike McGavick, the former Safeco CEO, faces freshman Democrat Maria Cantwell, who won a close race after a lengthy recount in 2000. McGavick’s candidacy has the widespread support of the insurance industry, and he is considered one of the few Republicans with a good chance to beat an incumbent Senate Democrat this cycle.

Connecticut Senate: Jaws dropped when three-term incumbent Joe Lieberman went down to cable magnate Ned Lamont in the August Democratic primary, but Lieberman fi led immediately to run as an independent in the general election. Lieberman, a longtime friend of independent agents and brokers, is the leader in the general election. Republican Alan Schlesinger hopes to benefi t from the Democratic split, but has generally run well behind.

Montana Senate: Two-term incumbent Republican Conrad Burns is in the fi ght of his life against Democrat Jon Tester, the State Senate president, who has consistently held a small but steady lead in this race, except for one recent poll that showed the race tied. Burns, a former Big “I” Legislator of the Year, has a history of coming from behind in the late stages of his campaigns, as he did in 2000 against current Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

Nebraska Senate: Democrat Ben Nelson is well regarded and considered the favorite against Republican businessman Pete Ricketts, but the Republican tilt of the Cornhusker state means this could be a competitive race. Nelson, a moderate who’s well respected on both sides of the aisle, is a former state insurance commissioner, a friend of agents and brokers, and was a speaker at the Big “I” National Legislative Conference in 2005.

Indiana House District 9: Democrat Baron Hill lost this seat in 2004 to Republican Mike Sodrel by less than 1,500 votes, and Hill is trying to win it back this fall. Hill, a former Big “I” member, likely was hurt by President Bush’s coattails in 2004, as Bush topped the 60% mark in Indiana and won this conservative Ohio River district by more than 13 percentage points. Hill faces a better political environment this time, but Sodrel now has the advantage of incumbency.

Other Top InsurPac Races: Republican Reps. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) and Michael Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) face stiff challenges from Democrats, while Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.), who comes from a Big “I” family, seeks reelection in a conservative leaning district.

Note: InsurPac-supported candidates listed first.